League Cup — xG

Expected Goals stagione 2025/26: chi crea più occasioni, chi finalizza meglio del previsto e chi spreca.

Squadre

xG totale lega

124

Gol reali

133

Diff lega

+8.6

Performance vs xG (79 squadre)

Performance = gol reali − xG. Positivo (verde) = squadra cinica/fortunata, Negativo (rosso) = sprecona/sfortunata.

#	Squadra	P	Gol	xG	xG sub	Diff
1	Chelsea	2	7	3.7	2.1	+3.31
2	Brentford	2	5	1.7	1.7	+3.26
3	Manchester City	4	9	6.5	2.6	+2.46
4	Doncaster	1	4	1.6	1.5	+2.43
5	Sheffield Wednesday	1	3	0.8	1.3	+2.20
6	Accrington ST	2	5	2.8	0.9	+2.19
7	Bolton	1	3	1.3	0.8	+1.70
8	Bradford	1	2	0.5	1.1	+1.54
9	Charlton	1	3	1.5	0.7	+1.51
10	Leicester	1	2	0.7	1.8	+1.34
11	Wolves	1	3	1.7	2.0	+1.32
12	Swansea	2	4	2.7	2.5	+1.29
13	Mansfield Town	1	2	0.9	0.7	+1.11
14	Cambridge United	1	2	0.9	1.1	+1.09
15	Barnsley	1	2	1.0	1.5	+0.96
16	Wrexham	2	4	3.1	4.5	+0.92
17	Norwich	1	2	1.1	0.3	+0.89
18	Bristol City	1	2	1.2	0.6	+0.83
19	Stockport County	1	3	2.2	1.3	+0.81
20	Oldham	1	1	0.2	1.4	+0.79
21	Watford	1	1	0.3	1.1	+0.74
22	Shrewsbury	1	1	0.3	2.8	+0.71
23	Hull City	1	3	2.3	1.5	+0.70
24	Harrogate Town	1	1	0.3	3.1	+0.70
25	Derby	1	1	0.4	1.7	+0.60
26	Sheffield Utd	1	1	0.4	2.3	+0.57
27	Fulham	1	1	0.4	1.5	+0.56
28	QPR	1	2	1.5	3.5	+0.50
29	Fleetwood Town	1	2	1.5	1.0	+0.49
30	Stevenage	1	1	0.7	1.5	+0.32
31	Southampton	1	1	0.7	1.5	+0.32
32	Peterborough	1	1	0.7	1.5	+0.32
33	Port Vale	1	1	0.7	0.4	+0.28
34	Oxford United	1	1	0.7	0.5	+0.26
35	Crawley Town	1	1	0.8	2.4	+0.21
36	Huddersfield	1	2	1.8	0.7	+0.20
37	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0.9	1.1	+0.13
38	Swindon Town	1	1	0.9	3.1	+0.11
39	Crystal Palace	1	1	0.9	3.8	+0.08
40	Wycombe	1	1	1.0	1.4	+0.04
41	Reading	1	2	2.0	2.4	-0.03
42	Lincoln	1	3	3.1	0.3	-0.06
43	Blackburn	1	1	1.1	0.5	-0.13
44	Gillingham	1	1	1.1	0.9	-0.13
45	Newport County	2	2	2.2	4.0	-0.21
46	Stoke City	1	0	0.2	0.8	-0.24
47	Crewe	1	1	1.3	2.2	-0.26
48	Birmingham	1	2	2.3	0.4	-0.30
49	Bromley	1	1	1.4	1.5	-0.35
50	Barnet	1	2	2.4	1.2	-0.38
51	Blackpool	1	0	0.4	0.7	-0.39
52	Wigan	1	1	1.4	1.1	-0.41
53	Preston	1	1	1.5	1.0	-0.46
54	Newcastle	2	2	2.5	2.1	-0.50
55	Ipswich	1	1	1.5	1.4	-0.51
56	Plymouth	1	3	3.5	1.5	-0.52
57	Colchester	1	0	0.5	0.7	-0.54
58	Millwall	1	1	1.6	1.1	-0.57
59	Grimsby	2	3	3.6	1.9	-0.60
60	Cheltenham	1	2	2.6	1.1	-0.61
61	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0.6	1.2	-0.64
62	West Brom	1	1	1.7	0.4	-0.69
63	Chesterfield	1	0	0.7	0.9	-0.73
64	Cardiff	3	5	5.8	4.1	-0.80
65	Walsall	1	0	0.8	0.2	-0.80
66	Barrow	1	0	1.0	1.5	-0.96
67	Bristol Rovers	1	0	1.1	0.9	-1.05
68	Notts County	1	0	1.1	1.4	-1.11
69	Exeter City	1	0	1.1	2.6	-1.12
70	Luton	1	0	1.2	2.3	-1.18
71	Coventry	1	1	2.3	1.2	-1.33
72	Portsmouth	1	1	2.4	2.0	-1.36
73	Leyton Orient	1	0	1.4	1.0	-1.40
74	Brighton	1	0	1.4	1.3	-1.41
75	Middlesbrough	1	0	1.5	1.6	-1.49
76	Northampton	1	0	1.5	0.7	-1.49
77	Salford City	1	0	1.5	1.7	-1.50
78	Rotherham	1	0	1.7	1.5	-1.72
79	Arsenal	3	3	6.2	4.6	-3.23

Cosa è xG?

Expected Goals (xG) è la somma della probabilità di ogni tiro di diventare gol. Una squadra che genera 50 xG e segna 60 gol sta sopra-performando: cinismo o fortuna. Sotto-performa quando segna molto meno del previsto.

Sul lungo periodo gol e xG si allineano. Una grossa divergenza è spesso un campanello di regressione.